Savanta, 60 Great Portland St, London W1W 7RT, and also online,

In attendance

• Professor Sir John Curtice – President
• Professor Jane Green – President Elect
• Simon Atkinson – Management Committee member
• Nick Moon – Secretary/Treasurer
• Tom Holford – Censuswide
• Martin Boon – Deltapoll 
• Lachlan Rurlander – Whitestone Insight
• Chris Holbrook – Find Out Now 
• Chris Hopkins – Savanta
• Bill White – Lucid talk 
• Philip von Scheltinga – Redford and Wilton

Attending online

• Kingsley Woldegiorgis – Stonehaven
• Alex Morrison – Observunt
• Conleth Burns – More In Common
• Martin Baxter – Electoral Calculus
• Anthony Wells – YouGov
• Ivor Knox – Norstat
• Gregor Jackson – Walnut
• Kieran Kumaria – Stack Strategy
• Gideon Skinner – Ipsos
• Robert Struthers – BMG
• Seb Wilde – Public First
• Johnny Heald – ORB
• Tyron Surmon – More in Common
• John Wright – Maru
• Damian Lyons Lowe – Survation

1. Apologies for absence

None had been received

2. Minutes of the last AGM

These had already been approved by Members

3. Officers’ reports

• Financial report

The financial position is very healthy, with income of £8,650 and expenditure of £4,289.59 leaving a healthy balance of £27,183.36. The Treasurer’s report was  received with no questions

• Disclosure issues dealt with by the officers

There were no disclosure issues that hadn’t been immediately resolved

• Membership applications dealt with by the officers

Five organisations had successfully applied to join during the year. Damian Lyons Lowe raised the issue of Members describing themselves as “accredited by the BPC” rather than as “members of the BPC”. This is inaccurate and it was agreed that all Members would be reminded not to use the words “accredited” or “approved”

• Web and social media report

The BPC now has nearly 2000 followers on X. For the moment there are no plans to use other social media. It is policy not to enter into debates on X or to respond t posts. It was suggested that we should post a pinned comment saying the BPC doesn’t reply via X and people should write to us formally

4. President’s report 

In addition to his written report, the President said the BPC had felt obliged to respond to the debate following the recent YouGov MRP poll, and so put out press release saying YouGov hadn’t broken any rules.

In his valedictory remarks the President stressed that BPC has had to change and has done so successfully, and has a high reputation, underpinned by relatively little infrastructure.

5. Appointment of the officers

• President

Professor Jane Green was proposed by Nick Moon and seconded by Simon Atkinson

• Secretary/Treasurer

Nick Moon was proposed by Jane Green and seconded by Lochlan Rurlander

• Management Committee member

Simon Atkinson was proposed by Jane Green and seconded by Martin Boon

6. Proposal for Early Careers Network (Paper) J

The new President began by saying that she thought the  event had gone very well, and invited comments on the paper. Johnny Heald agreed the event had been a success and said that ORB would be happy to support the development of the network, and to sponsor future events. It was agreed that the pre election seminar should be late June, with the Officers mandated to make arrangements alongside the Early Careers Group. LSE is to be approached as a potential venue again

7. Role of BPC in qualitative research 

Martin Boon raised the point that there was an increasing tendency for people to quote broad findings from focus groups, without any background information on methodology – how many groups, who with, when etc – and he was concerned that the BPC might be open to criticism over this. There was discussion of the pros and cons but a consensus emerged that qualitative research did not fall within the definition of “polling” and thus fell outside the BPC’s remit. It was agreed not to take the idea of legislating for qualitative work any further.  However, if members wish to raise this again in future, the President highlighted that they are, of course, very welcome to do so. Damian Lyons Lowe suggested adding something on the BPC website saying why focus groups were different from polls, and why focus groups are not in our remit. The Officers to suggest a form of wording.

8. Any Other Business 

Jane Green thanked Savanta for hosting the event.

Nick Moon proposed a vote of thanks to John Curtice for all his work over 16 years. He announced that by way of thanks a cordless strimmer (for the allotment) and a Royal Opera House voucher were on their way to him, and also presented him with an abacus inscribed “You can count on your friends from the BPC”.

Martin Baxter thanked all those members who had contributed to the submission on the Census.

The Meeting was held at Ipsos and online on 24 January 2023

Present 

In person

• Professor Sir John Curtice, President 
• Nick Moon, Secretary/Treasurer
• Simon Atkinson, Management Committee 
• Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation
• Luke Taylor, Kantar Public
• Will Clothier, Yonder
• Charles Moore, Censuswide
• Anthony Wells, YouGov 
• Bill White, LucidTalk 
• Gideon Skinner, Ipsos 
• Joe Twyman, Deltapoll 
• Martin baxter, Electoral Calculus

Online

• Kieran Kunaria, Stack
• Chris Hopkins, Savanta ComRes 
• Brian Cooper, Omnisis
• Seb Wilde, Public First
• Ivor Knox, Panelbase
• Chris Holbrook, findoutnow
• Luke Bethem, Stonehaven
• Erik Larsen, People Polling
• Alex Morrison, Obsurvant
• Duncan Garnett, Focaldata

1.   Apologies for absence

Gregor Jackson, ICM

Philip van Scheltinga, Redfield & Wilton

2.   Minutes of the last AGM

The minutes were approved

Under Matters Arising JC introduced his minor revision to the Sampling guidance, and the revised Guidance was accepted by the meeting

3. Officers’ reports

• Financial report 

A written report was supplied in advance of the AGM.

During 2022 we received £3,900 in subscription fees, much of it 2021 subs. £2,200 subs remain outstanding from 2021

Expenditure during the year was £2,457.23, most of which was for the conference held in November. We owe creditors £1,331.32, partly for the conference and partly for web hosting.

The bank balance at the end of 2022 was £22,722.95

With the current membership annual subscription income is £4,000.

GS suggested we might spend some money on an event to encourage more diverse representation in the industry.

JC reported that the BPC (along with the MRS) is sponsoring an award from the NCTJ.

MB suggested that as the November conference had been a success we should consider making it an annual event, the Officers agreed to consider this.

• Disclosure issues dealt with by the officers

There were no complaints received during the year that fell within the BPC remit, and JC thanked members for ensuring that their obligations under the rules were consistently being met.

• Membership applications dealt with by the officers

Seven new members had been approved since the last AGM: Bradshaw Advisory, Censuswide, Obsurvant, People Polling, Stonehaven, Techne UK, and WA Communications. JC invited those new members to give a brief introduction about themselves.

• Web and social media report

A written report was supplied in advance of the AGM. SA outlined the further improvements to the website that had taken place during the year, particularly the Resources section, and highlighting the Journalists’ Guide

He also reported that the Twitter account has passed the 1700 followers mark, and reminded members of his general policy of tweeting information rather than starting or joining debates. The list of BPC Members has been tweeted so people can follow each Member if they wish.

He asked members to check that the link on the members page of the website links to a suitable landing page for members of the public looking to find poll details.

JT asked if we were going to apply for a blue tick for Twitter. SA said the tick situation is being monitored.

4.   President’s report 

Report had been distributed to members. 

JC gave an introduction to the proposed Rule change at item 6.

He also reported that the work of the Lords Committee has now been completed, and the BPC has done all that was asked of it

He also reported that because of the sudden increase in membership he has started a process of “getting to know you” conversations with each of the newer members.

5.   Appointment of the officers

All three Officers were reappointed for a further year.

6.   Proposed changes to the Rules 

NM proposed, and SA seconded, the following changes to the BPC rules and guidance:

• Amend Rule 1.2 as follows:
• 1.2. Membership of the BPC is open to all organisations that have two or more clients for whom they conduct social or political polls, and that aim to use sampling methods and/or weighting procedures designed to broadly represent the opinions of all people in designated groups. Membership of the BPC does not in any way imply approval by the BPC of any organisation’s methods, and members agree not to make any such claim or otherwise imply the same.

AW raised the issue of whether non-political polls conducted by members fall within BPC’s remit. JC said the Officers would consider the matter and would make suggestions for possible rule changes/clarifications in the next few months.

7.   Any Other Business

Focaldata were invited by JC to give members an idea of what they wished to do: their proposal was to produce an interactive dashboard as an alternative to the production of computer tables on their website. The feeling of the meeting was that if this dashboard required people to register, then it was not within the spirit of the transparency rules. However, there was no reason why the company should not introduce a dashboard as an additional facility and the Council would be interested in hearing about experience with its use.

LT raised the issue of international surveys conducted by international partners of members that included a UK component. JC said the Officers would consider this.

LT also raised the issue of member companies conducting government social surveys such as the British Crime Survey. JC reminded members that there had been an instance where BPC rules required tables being made available from a survey conducted by a government department the previous year. NM suggested there was a distinction between opinion surveys conducted by government departments and social surveys like BCS, and the Officers agreed to add this to their increasingly lengthy list of items under consideration.

MB drew members’ attention to the government’s stated intention of replacing the 2031 Census with an exercise driven solely by administrative data, and pointed out the implications for members using small area census data in their work. The results of the MRS survey on this will be released shortly, and MB invited members interested in commenting publicly on this to contact him

UNAPPROVED

The Meeting was held via Microsoft Teams on 25 January 2022

Present

• Professor Sir John Curtice, President
• Nick Moon, Secretary/Treasurer
• Simon Atkinson, Management Committee
• Kieran Kunaria, Stack
• Anthony Wells, YouGov
• Bill White, LucidTalk
• Owen Thomas, Yonder
• Chris Hopkins, Savanta ComRes
• Luke Taylor, Kantar Public
• Martin Boon, Deltapoll
• Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation
• Adam Drummond, Opinium
• Seb Wilde, Public First
• Ivor Knox, Panelbase
• Gregor Jackson, ICM
• Justin Ibbett, Focaldata
• Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORI
• Martin Baxter, Electoral Calculus
• Chris Holbrook, findoutnow

1.  Apologies for absence

Robert Struthers, BMG

2.  Minutes of the last AGM

The minutes were approved
There were no matters arising that were not already on the agenda

3.  Officers’ reports

Financial report

A written report was supplied in advance of the AGM.

During 2021 we received £4,750 in subscription fees, mostly representing 2021 subs. £1,300 subs remain outstanding from 2021, and we have £200 owing to creditors.

Expenditure during the year was £336.66, almost all of which was for website expenses

The bank balance at the end of 2021 was £21,280.18.

With the current membership annual subscription income is £3,600.

Disclosure issues dealt with by the officers

There was one complaint received during the year that fell within the BPC remit, concerning a survey conducted by a Member for a government department. A minister had quoted a finding from the survey, and the BPC received a request for conformation from another party that in line with BPC Rules details of other questions on the same subject also needed to be released. Sir John wrote to the department explaining the Rules, and following this the department duly released the required data.

Membership applications dealt with by the officers

Two new members were approved since the AGM: findoutnow and Electoral Calculus.

Demos have recently announced they are leaving the BPC.

We currently have 25 members.

Two membership applications are nearing completion.

Web and social media report

A written report was supplied in advance of the AGM. SA outlined the significant overhaul of the website that had taken place during the year, to remove duplication and make information easier to find.

He also reported that the Twitter account has passed the 1,300 followers mark, and reminded members of his general policy of tweeting information rather than starting or joining debates. The list of BPC Members has been tweeted so people can follow each Member if they wish.

4.  Appointment of the officers

All three Officers were reappointed for a further year

5.  President’s report

Report had been distributed to members.

JC said members were mostly excellent at getting the required information on their websites within the prescribed periods, and thanked them for this.

One of the biggest achievements of the year was the online Journalists Training Scheme, which was developed by the BPC in collaboration with the MRS and the National Council for the Training of Journalists, and was running by the end of the year. The course is free and some 30 people have already started the course.

The Officers did investigate Indemnity Insurance, as suggested by Lord Lipsey, but decided that the costs could not be justified given the activities that the BPC engages in.

6.  Proposed changes to the Rules and Guidance

NM proposed, and SA seconded, the following changes to the BPC rules and guidance:

Add new Rule 2.7:

Whenever it is practical to do so, members should endeavour to check the accuracy of the polling figures in any initial publication by a client of the results of one of their polls 

This was approved new con.

• Note: a new statement of guidance on what information Members should supply about their methodology (as circulated before AGM).

Some concerns were raised about practicalities and JC proposed a minor addition to the text to address these concerns. Members were happy for the document to be noted following this redraft.

7.  Any Other Business

JC thanked NM and SA for their work during the year, and thanked members for meeting the Rules and being responsive to requests.

The Meeting was held via Zoom on 19 January 2021.

Present

• Professor Sir John Curtice, President
• Nick Moon, Secretary/Treasurer
• Simon Atkinson, Management Committee
• Johnny Heald, ORB
• James Kanagasooriam, Hanbury Strategy
• Anthony Wells, YouGov
• Bill White, LucidTalk
• Owen Thomas, Yonder
• Chris Hopkins, Savanta ComRes
• Luke Taylor, Kantar Public
• Martin Boon, Deltapoll
• Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation
• Adam Drummond, Opinium
• Seb Wilde, Public First
• Ivor Knox, Panelbase
• Gregor Jackson, ICM
• Justin Ibbett, Focaldata
• Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORI
• Tom Lubbock, JL Partners

1. Apologies for absence

Harry Carr, Demos

2.  Minutes of the last AGM

The minutes were approved.
There were no matters arising that were not already on the agenda.

3.  Officers’ reports

Financial report 

A written report was supplied in advance of the AGM.

During 2020 we received £3,300 in subscription fees, mostly representing 2020 subs. £1,550 subs remain outstanding from 2020

Expenditure during the year was £1,477.26. Of this £960 was for the Journalists’ Guide design, and the remainder for various website expenses.

The bank balance at the end of 2020 was £17,826.84.

With the current membership annual subscription income is £3,500.

Disclosure issues dealt with by the officers

Other than the usual small number of complaints about matters not within the BPC’s remit, there were no complaints about disclosure that required action from the Officers.

The Sub Committee on Disclosure has been refreshed with some members of it stepping down. Each was replaced by someone in the same field – academic/journalist/pollster.

Membership applications dealt with by the officers

Two new members were approved since the AGM: focaldata and JL partners, while Portland Communications and Redfield and Wilton Strategies had become members just before the last AGM. 

We currently have 25 members.

Web and social media report

A written report was supplied in advance of the AGM. SA outlined the main areas where refreshing the website had taken place, and others where it is still ongoing

He also reported that the Twitter account has passed the 1,000 followers mark, and outlined his general policy of tweeting information rather than starting or joining debates.

4.  Appointment of the officers

• President
  NM nominated JC, SA seconded, elected nem con

• Secretary
  DLL nominated NM, JH seconded, elected nem con

• Management Committee member
  NM nominated SA, AW seconded, elected nem con

5.  President’s report 

Report had been distributed to members. JC in particular drew attention to the fact the BPC was likely to have to commit some funds to a training module for journalists. Once a more formal design with costing has been finalised the Officers will put a proposal to members. 

JC thanked SA for all his work on the website and the Journalists’ Guide. 

JC reported that his report on the 2019 election polls is still ongoing.

JC raised the idea of moving to a virtual meeting for future AGMs. General feeling was that, Covid permitting, a physical meeting with Zoom option would be preferable.

JC reported that, as outlined at the last AGM, the Officers were now meeting virtually every six weeks or so.

6.  House of Lords Committee further update

Committee itself has completed its work but there is a follow-up sub-committee, which JC has given evidence to. Generally the BPC’s work in response to the Committee has been well-received. In answer to a question from DLL JC said that the idea of statuary regulation was not recommended in the report.

7.  Journalists’ Guide to Opinion Polls

SC reported that the Guide was seen as an important way of encouraging the good reporting of polls. Rather than rewrite the previous guide it was decided to start from scratch, with the aim of creating a much shorter guide, in the hopes that more people would read it.

Many members commented helpfully on the drafts, and the final version was sent to a designer to make it look more appealing.

A print run will be produced for appropriate meetings or conferences.

AW asked if there had been any contact from IPSO, and JC reported that there had not.

8.  Proposed changes to the Rules

NM proposed, and SA seconded, the following changes to the BPC rules:

• The addition of a new clause 2.8: Members are required to check the accuracy of the polling figures in any publication by a client of the results of a poll the member has conducted.

It was agreed that it would not be possible to impose a mandatory requirement for members to include the BPC rules in their contracts, but that it would be desirable for members to check that their contracts do enable them to comply with BPC rules. JC suggested that the Officers draft a revised amendment to the rules that indicated that ‘wherever possible’ members should endeavour to check the accuracy of the figures in the initial release of a poll, and then send this new draft round for discussion by email.

9.  Discussion of Members’ contractual requirement re disclosure rules

The issue was raised of whether members should include the relevant BPC Rules in their own contracts with clients. There was no broad support for this but JC suggested that members looked at their standard contracts to see what if anything could be done to ensure their own obligations under the BPC Rules are met, and to report back at the next AGM.

10.  Any Other Business

JC thanked everyone for attending and also proposed a vote of thanks to ORB for setting up the meeting. He also thanked members for their continued work in ensuring that tables etc are always made available.

The Meeting was held at ORB on 16 March 2020

Present in person

• Nick Moon, Secretary/Treasurer
• Simon Atkinson, Management Committee
• Johnny Heald, ORB
• Anthony Wells, YouGov
• Bill White, LucidTalk
• Owen Thomas Populus
• Chris Hopkins, Savanta ComRes
• Harry Carr, Demos

Dialling in

• Professor Sir John Curtice, President 
• Luke Taylor, Kantar Public 
• James Crouch, Opinium 
• Michael Thrasher, Sky Data 
• Abraham Mueller, qriously 
• Martin Boon, Deltapoll 
• Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation

1. Apologies for absence

Robert Struthers, BMG; James Kanagasooriam, Hanbury Strategy; Seb Wilde, Public First; Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORI; Gregor Jackson, ICM.

2. Minutes of the last AGM

The minutes were approved.
There were no matters arising that were not already on the agenda.

3. Officers’ reports

Financial report

During 2019 we received £2,950 in subscription fees, of which £800 related to late paid 2018 invoices. There is still £1,400 in subscription fees due for 2019: Savanta ComRes, Harris Interactive, Ipsos MORI, YouGov (all £200), Panelbase (£150), Opinium, Survation, Lindsell Marketing, BMG (all £100).

Expenses during the year were £14.70. However we have not received an invoice for website hosting and running, and we still owe an unknown amount for President’s expenses .

The bank balance at the end of 2019 was £14,881.04.

With the current membership annual subscription income is £3,500.

Disclosure issues dealt with by the officers

Other than the usual small number of complaints about matters not within the BPC’s remit, there were no complaints about disclosure that required action from the Officers.

Membership applications dealt with by the officers

Two new members were approved during the year: Demos and Omnisis. For completeness two more have been approved in 2020 to date: Portland Communications and Redfield and Wilton Strategies. We currently have 26 members.

The issue was raised of whether members should be using membership of the BPC as a badge of quality, and it was agreed that we would send out a note making it clear that this was not something that should be claimed or implied.

4. Appointment of the officers

• President
  NM nominated JC, SA seconded, elected nem con
• Secretary
  DLL nominated NM, JH seconded, elected nem con
• Management Committee member
  NM nominated SA, AW seconded, elected nem con

5. President’s report 

Report had been distributed to members. It was noted that the management of the BPC should be more proactive, and that the Officers will hold a virtual meeting every 2-3 months to discuss whether there are any issues the BPC needs to address.
There were no comments other than on matters covered elsewhere in the agenda.
It was agreed that a summary of the Political Communications event would appear in due course on the BPC website.

6. Proposed changes to the Rules

NM proposed, and SA seconded, the following changes to the BPC rules:

Delete Rule 2.3

Add a new bullet point to 2.5 as follows:

In the case of a poll of voting intentions for an election (including any election that has to be called), the following BPC statement on uncertainty.

All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.

Approved but agreed that we would check that the calculations still apply after the 2019 general election.

Add a new bullet point to 2.5 as follows:

In the case of polling data that has been used by a polling organisation to model vote intentions for an election (including any election that has yet to be called) in individual constituencies, a statement of which party is estimated to be first in each seat and an indication of the estimated probability (within a ten-point band) of that party winning.

After discussion this was amended to:

In the case of polling data that has been used by a polling organisation to model vote intentions for an election (including any election that has yet to be called) in individual constituencies, an indication (for parties with a realistic chance of winning) of either (i) each party’s estimated probability of winning each seat, or (ii) the estimated vote shares for each party in each constituency.

At Rule 2.5 bullet 2 insert ‘or modelled’ after ‘weighted’

At Rule 2.5 bullet 3 amend ‘weighted’ to ‘weighted/modelled’

Reorder the bullets at 2.5 so that those on ‘e-mail address’ and ‘BPC website’ appear as the penultimate and final items respectively.

All approved.

7. House of Lords Committee

The President’s Report covered this in some detail and JC explained the various points in his report dealing with the actions suggested by the Committee and his proposals for dealing with them.
JC noted that George Foulkes has tabled his Bill on the regulation of opinion polls again, exactly as he did two years ago, although it is again not expected to progress far.
It was noted that we are still awaiting replies from the two bodies the President contacted about possible collaboration on training of journalists: the Broadcast Journalism Training Council, and the National Council for the Training of Journalists.
It was again agreed that the BPC would not and could not get involved in assessing the quality of polls, and would not get into the business of reviewing media coverage of polls.
JC will respond formally to House of Lords and will copy to members.

8. Financial Conduct Authority update

The proposed new guidance for members was discussed and approved.

9. Journalists’ Guide to Opinion Polls

The proposed new Guide for Journalists was approved as a concept, and members were asked to raise points of detail directly with JC.
DLL suggested that the guide should refer specifically to what the BPC rules require.
NM suggested it should also be made clear that BPC membership is about transparency not data quality.

10. Website

SA introduced his brief paper on recent changes to modernise and improve the BPC website. Members were asked to check their own details on the members page on the site.
It was agreed that SA would investigate in more detail the costs of improving the website still further.
There was also a suggestion from a member of the public that during elections the BPC website could form a reliable source for information on all polls conducted by members. This would involve a members-only section of the website, password protected, where members could add the voting intention figures from their most recent poll into a simple template.
HC pointed out that Britain Elects already provides a similar service.
The feeling among members was that this would still not solve the problem of fake polls being posted on Wikipedia.
It was agreed that the BPC should not proceed with this suggestion, but that the Members page should have a hot link to a page on their website that either contained their latest poll, or made it easy to find their latest poll.

11. Any Other Business

JC thanked everyone for attending and also proposed a vote of thanks to ORB for hosting both the physical and virtual elements.

The Meeting was held at ORB on 5 March 2019

Present

• Sir John Curtice, President
• Nick Moon, Secretary/Treasurer
• Simon Atkinson, Management Committee
• Erica Harrison, ORB
• Ivor Knox, Panelbase
• Anthony Wells, YouGov
• Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORI
• Adam Drummond, Opinium
• Luke Taylor, Kantar Public
• Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation
• Gregor Jackson, ICM
• Owen Thomas, Populus
• Seb Wilde, Public First

1. Apologies for absence

There were no apologies for absence.

2. Minutes of the last AGM

The minutes were approved.

No matters arising not already on the agenda.

3. Officers’ reports

Financial report 

During 2018 we received £4,650 in subscription fees, covering both 2017 and 2018 subs as 2017 invoices were sent out with 2018 ones. There is still £500 in subscription fees due for 2018: both years from Panelbase and one year from Ipsos MORI.

Expenses during the year were £1,180.09, the two main components being £748 to the RSS for a meeting room and £353.99 for the website hosting and running.

The bank balance at the end of 2018 was £12,000.74.

With the current membership annual subscription income is £2,950.

Disclosure issues dealt with by the officers

Other than the usual small number of complaints about matters not within the BPC’s remit, there were no complaints about disclosure that required action from the Officers.

Membership applications dealt with by the officers

A record four new members were approved during the year: qriously, Hanbury Strategy, Deltapoll and Public First.

4. President’s report

Report had been distributed to members. There were no comments other than on matters covered elsewhere in the agenda.

5. Appointment of the officers

• President
  NM nominated JC, SA seconded, elected nem con.
• Secretary
  JC nominated NM, GJ seconded, elected nem con.
• Management Committee member
  JC nominated SA, JT seconded, elected nem con.

6. House of Lords Committee

The President’s Report covered this in some detail and JC explained the various points in his report dealing with the actions suggested by the Committee and his proposals for dealing with them.

1. Meeting agreed that we would have a section on the website on how to make a complaint, and also making clear what we can and can’t adjudicate on.
2. Meeting agreed that we would write a spec for the things to be covered in a revised Journalists’ Guide. Once this is agreed by the membership we will either commission a professional writer to write it, or write it using internal resources. JT raised the point that it might have more credibility if it were written by a journalist. GS suggested Full Facts. The Statistics Ambassador for the RSS has volunteered to help, and he will be sent the outline for comment at an early stage. It was agreed that in future the BPC will have a link to each member’s methodology statement on their own website.
3. The recommendation for a coordinated programme of training for journalists on polling could involve the BPC in considerable expense. One approach might be to approach University Schools of Journalism to offer lectures on polling. JT is already doing this in many places and is happy to do more. This only impacts on the journalists of tomorrow. GS suggested approaching The Lobby for training in opinion polls, though it was accepted that take-up may be low.
4. The recommendation about polls declaring far more information about the amount and details of funding would raise very serious issues of client and member confidentiality and it was agreed that it would be inappropriate for the BPC to impose such a condition on members.
5. We do already.
6. It was accepted that members would not agree in any detail exactly what would constitute good or bad progress. JT suggested a very broad brush top-level guide to principles, and it was agreed that this might sit within the Journalists’ Guide.
7. LT made the point that this would involve the BPC making pronouncements on things outside our remit, and might raise issues of why we do this but don’t police such things. It was agreed that this lay outside the remit of the BPC.
8. See 7. Though the Journalists’ Guide, once revised, would perform a useful function here and we would offer to assist Ofcom etc if they wanted help in interpreting it further, while being mindful of the need to avoid going beyond our remit.
9. See 7
10. See 7

7. Treasury Select Committee

JC said Morgan Committee was closed as far as we were concerned at this stage. GJ raised the question of whether the fact that our response may have been seen as unsatisfactory by committee means there might be some come-back. JC felt this would depend on what came out of the discussions with the FCA.

8. Financial Conduct Authority

JC reported that whatever FCA decide it will be looking forward not looking back. They do not feel members have done anything wrong.

9. Proposed change to Rule 2.7

NM proposed that rule 2.7 should be changed from: 

However, in the event the results of a privately commissioned poll are made public by the organisation [its employees or agents] that commissioned the survey, such results will be deemed to have entered the public domain and procedures outlined above will be followed in respect of those findings.

to:

However, in the event the results of a privately commissioned poll are made public as a result of actions by the organisation [its employees or agents] that commissioned the survey, such results will be deemed to have entered the public domain and procedures outlined above will be followed in respect of those findings.

The amendment was agreed subject to organisations being able to object within 28 days of receiving the AGM minutes.

10. Any Other Business

JC urged members who have not done so to read the proposed revisions to the MRS Code of Conduct and if they feel there are any issues that might require a response from the BPC as opposed to individual company responses.

It was agreed that we probably can’t afford a complete redesign of our website, but that SA would obtain costs for updating it and making it more user-friendly.

JC raised the issue of making it possible to attend future AGMs by video link or at least phone.

JC also proposed a vote of thanks to ORB for hosting.

The Meeting was held at ORB on 20th February 2018

Present

Sir John Curtice, President
Nick Moon, Secretary/Treasurer
Simon Atkinson, Management Committee
Johnny Heald, ORB
Ivor Knox, Panelbase
Anthony Wells, YouGov
Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORI
Laurence Stellings, Populus
Jansev Jemal, ComRes
Adam Drummond, Opinium
Luke Taylor, Kantar Public
Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation

1. Apologies for absence

BMG, Lucid Talk, and ICM

2. Minutes of the last AGM

The minutes were approved

3.Officers’ reports

• Financial report

  We currently have £9,985 in the bank, and £3,750 of outstanding membership fees (from 2017 and 2018), making a due total of £13,735. There are expenses expected, but probably no more than £500.

  NM raised the possibility of another fees holiday but it was agreed that the BPC needed to build a reserves fund in case the need for another enquiry, and fees would be levied as usual in 2019. With the existing members NM reported that annual subscription income is £2,750.

  It was agreed NM would send a note of thanks to MRS thanking them for their financial support for the Inquiry.

• Disclosure issues dealt with by the officers

  Nothing that fell within our remit. ComRes audience recruitment raised a new serious issue about whether this fell within the Rules. The Officers decided it didn’t, and a clarification was published on the BPC website making this clear

• Membership applications dealt with by the officers

  DCYFOR have become members

4. Appointment of the officers

• President
  NM nominated JC, SA seconded, elected nem con
• Secretary
  JH nominated NM, DLL seconded, elected nem con
• Management Committee member
  AW nominated SA, LS seconded, elected nem con

5. President’s report

The report raised the issue of whether we need to think about rules to cover Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP). It was agreed we keep a watching eye on this for now. All other main points from the report are covered in later agenda items.

6. House of Lords Committee

JC and SA attended on behalf of BPC, NM and various BPC members also gave evidence.

BPC might have to make some kind of holding statement quickly after the final statement is released. We have already said we’re opposed to both statutory regulation and banning polls. We have slightly moved into quality domain by having enquiries into elections and agreeing certain procedures as a result, so may be under pressure to venture further.

JC encouraged members who were not CEOs of their organisation to ensure that their CEO was fully aware of the potential difficulties following publication.

Cttee due to report by end of March.

Agreed that JC should be authorised to give a strong defence of the value of self-regulation – citing all the openness and attempts to improve that happened after the election. We are much more transparent than most other countries.

It was agreed that the BPC would hold at least one mid-Parliament meeting, ideally within the Palace of Westminster, as well as the pre and post-election sessions to explain latest thinking.

7. Reporting uncertainty in the polls

Gideon introduced paper produced by Luke Taylor and him. Aim was to try to find a simple approach of explaining likely levels of uncertainty in polls. They decided best way, to avoid having to explain statistical theory to lay people, was to use history of reliability of polls in previous elections. Looked at all final polls done by BPC members (including 2001 before BPC existed).

Suggested level of uncertainty of +/-4pp, (achieved by >90% of polls), but also mention that most polls are within +/-2pp.

The Sturgis bootstrapping approach, achieved by taking repeated random sub-samples from polls, was felt to be harder to understand. Also bootstrapping ignores bias rather than variance by not comparing with actual result
Members would be free to calculate and publish their own.

Agreed to principle of what the paper says.

We need a PR statement to accompany the change in rules.

8. Proposed rule change following item 7

Insert at the end of the bullet points at Rule 2.4.

In the case of a poll of voting intentions for an election, include in the published documentation the following statement: ‘All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.’

This amendment to take effect from 1 April 2018.

GS asked all members for comments, and to check their own companies’ figures.

JC proposed NM seconded nem con.

9. Any Other Business

SA suggested we look again at FAQs and journalists’ guide to opinion polls on the website in the light of the Lords Cttee

JC suggested we investigate cost of updating the design of the website.

The Meeting was held at GfK NOP on 23 March 2015

Present:

• John Curtice, President
• Nick Moon, GfK NOP, Secretary
• Simon Atkinson, Ipsos MORI
• Anthony Wells, YouGov
• Johnny Heald, ORB
• Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation
• Tom Mludzinski, ComRes
• Laurence Stellings, Populus
• Ivor Knox, Panelbase

Apologies:

• Bill White, Lucid Talk
• Harris Interactive
• Mindmetre
• TNS BMRB

Minutes:

The minutes of the last meeting were agreed.

Officers’ Report:

Mindmetre were approved as new members during this year.

There were two complaints during the year, but only one case where the Executive Committee asked someone to provide information they had not already provided. In the other case clarification from the member showed that the poll was not covered by BPC rules.

John Curtice reported that he had repeated the earlier invitation to Lord Ashcroft to join the BPC, but had not had a reply. There was then a discussion about how much input members had to have to a poll conducted for Lord Ashcroft before they were obliged to make details available under BPC rules. It was agreed that Nick Moon would circulate a note about this, though in most cases the Rule 2.7 outlined below would take Ashcroft polls out of BPC rules.

John Curtice also reported that he had written to the Yes and No campaigns in Scotland, drawing their attention to BPC rules.
An application for membership had been received during the year, which led to a discussion about what exactly constituted a “polling organisation” as in the BPC Rules. It was agreed that there were two conditions that must be fulfilled by an organisation wishing to join the BPC:

• must be operationally independent – eg not itself a proselytising organisation
• must conduct polls for more than one client

One impact of this decision is that Lord Ashcroft would not be eligible to be a BPC member.

Financial Report:

At the start of 2012 BPC had £7,089 in the bank. During the year there was membership income of £500 and bank charges of £60. The balance at the end of 2012 was £7,529. However there is cheque for £240 for the website that has not been cashed. Also, invoices for the reduced 2013 membership fees will be sent out with the 2014 invoices, and if all these are paid there will be an additional £350 of income. This means that the balance sheet at the end of the year is £7,646, although Chairman’s expenses have not yet been submitted for the 2013 AGM.

Sub-committee on disclosure:

Nick Moon and Simon Atkinson have both been on the sub-committee since its formation, but as they are now Officers they need to be replaced. It was agreed that Martin Boon and Andrew Cooper would be invited to join. Martin was present and agreed, and Nick Moon will write to Andrew.

Election of Officers:

John Curtice was re-elected unopposed as President
Nick Moon was re-elected unopposed as Secretary
Simon Atkinson was elected unopposed as member of the Management Committee

Motions

Nick Moon tabled four amendments to the BPC rules:

5.3. The President will take the chair at the AGM and any EGM. In the absence of the President, members present at the meeting will nominate a chairman for that meeting. Members may also appoint the President, in advance of the meeting, to cast their vote by Proxy according to their instructions.

5.7 subject to the agreement of two thirds of members, amendments to the Objects and Rules may be made via an email vote if there is agreed to be sufficient urgency

2.6.2. The rules of disclosure apply to all polls published in the UK by BPC members, irrespective of where they are conducted. The rules of disclosure do not apply where the survey organisation has no responsibility for the design of the survey or of the analysis, and all weighting of the data is according to client instruction

2.7. Any member of the BPC responsible for conducting a private survey that has entered the public domain, with the BPC member identified by the client, will acknowledge having conducted the survey.

All were passed unanimously.

In the case of 2.7 it was agreed that it would be good practice for members to say “no comment” rather than deny having conducted the poll

Any Other Business:

John Curtice reminded members about the date when the 28 day rule for elections would come into effect, and also said that Sunday polls should ideally be on the pollster’s website on the Sunday.

Nick Moon reported that Companies House were disputing our right to use the words “British” and ”Council” in our name. Members need to write to Companies House to say that the BPC includes all relevant practitioners, and that there was no competing body.

There was some discussion as to whether BPC should hold a post-mortem conference after the election. It was agreed that we would ask for a slot at the Political Communications s conference on 17/18 June.

It was agreed that the BPC table on the accuracy of the polls would define a final poll as a poll that was conducted entirely before the polls open, and included at least some fieldwork on the Tuesday

It was agreed that the Management Committee would decide whether a separate report on any on-the-day or hybrid polls would be necessary.

The Meeting was held at GfK NOP on 14 February 2014

Present:

• John Curtice, President
• Nick Moon, GfK NOP, Secretary
• Peter Kellner, YouGov
• Simon Atkinson, Ipsos MORI
• Nick Howatt, TNS-BMRB
• Johnny Heald, ORB
• Martin Boon, ICM
• Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation
• Katherine Peacock, ComRes
• Bill White, Lucid Talk
• Adam Drummond, Opinium
• Ivor Knox, Panelbase

Apologies:

• Andrew Cooper, Populus

Minutes:

The minutes of the last meeting were agreed.

Officers’ Report:

The application for membership that was pending at the last AGM was subsequently approved and Lucid Talk have now become members. An application was received and approved from Panelbase during the year and they too are now members.

There have been two substantive complaints since the last AGM concerning BPC rules of disclosure, one concerning the required information from published polls not being on the member’s website by the deadline set in the Rules and one about potentially misleading reporting of poll details. In the first case the member had not realised that disclosure was also required for non-political surveys conducted by BPC members, and made the information available as soon as they were reminded that it was. John Curtice advised members that if they were unsure whether a survey fell under BPC rules they need not proactively put full details on their website, but they must be prepared to make them available on request.

In the second case the member had used the computer tabulations as the means of making the full question wording available — a perfectly acceptable practice — but had added extra codes generated during the office coding process to the list of answers, thus making it appear that these options had been offered to respondents rather than just the two options that were actually on the questionnaire. The member published a clarification. Members were generally reminded that if using tabulations as the means of showing question wording, it must be made clear if they include answer options not offered to respondents.

There have again been complaints about polls conducted by members but concerning matters outside the BPC’s jurisdiction, such as question wording, and these have received a response outlining what the BPC does and does not set out to do.

John Curtice reported that he had repeated the earlier invitation to Lord Ashcroft to join the BPC, but had not had a reply. There was then a discussion about how much input members had to have to a poll conducted for Lord Ashcroft before they were obliged to make details available under BPC rules. It was agreed that Nick Moon would circulate a note about this.

John Curtice also reported that he had written to the Yes and No campaigns in Scotland, drawing their attention to BPC rules.

An application for membership had been received during the year, which led to a discussion about what exactly constituted a “polling organisation” as in the BPC Rules. It was agreed that there were two conditions that must be fulfilled by an organisation wishing to join the BPC:

• must be operationally independent — eg not itself a proselytising organisation,
• must conduct polls for more than one client.

Financial Report:

At the start of 2012 BPC had £7,089 in the bank. During the year there was membership income of £500 and bank charges of £60. The balance at the end of 2012 was £7,529. However there is cheque for £240 for the website that has not been cashed. Also, invoices for the reduced 2013 membership fees will be sent out with the 2014 invoices, and if all these are paid there will be an additional £350 of income. This means that the balance sheet at the end of the year is £7,646, although Chairman’s expenses have not yet been submitted for the 2013 AGM.

Sub-Committee on Disclosure:

Nick Moon and Simon Atkinson have both been on the sub-committee since its formation, but as they are now Officers they need to be replaced. It was agreed that Martin Boon and Andrew Cooper would be invited to join. Martin was present and agreed, and Nick Moon will write to Andrew.

Motion on 2013 membership fees:

As had been signalled at the previous AGM, the strength of the BPC’s finances led to a motion being proposed by Nick Moon and seconded by Simon Atkinson that membership fees should be reduced to a nominal £25 for 2013 before reverting to normal levels for 2014. The motion was carried unanimously.

Election of Officers:

John Curtice was re-elected unopposed as President

Nick Moon was re-elected unopposed as Secretary

Simon Atkinson was elected unopposed as member of the Management Committee.

Any Other Business:

Although they had not been presented according to the timelines required by the BPC rules, members agreed to discuss two motions proposed by John Curtice. The first concerned the following motion passed at the 2010 AGM.

With effect from 28 days before any referendum held in the whole of any of  England, Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, members will endeavour to publish on their web-site full details (as specified in the council’s rules of disclosure) of any poll that ascertains the voting intentions of the public in that referendum (in all or in any part of the relevant territory) within 18 hours of initial publication.

The new motion proposed was:

“Further to the motion passed by the council at its 2010 AGM on the publication of polls on referendum vote intentions, the council resolves that in the case of the Scottish referendum due to be held on 18 September 2014, the stipulations of that motion should exceptionally apply from 16 weeks immediately prior to polling day.”

John Curtice explained that the effect of this motion would be to expect that the details of polls be published within 18 hours from 29 May onwards. Although purdah will only begin on 21 August, 28 days before polling day, a number of organisations, including the BBC, are regarding the whole of the 16 week period in which campaign expenditure as regulated as the period during which ‘campaign rules; should apply. Given the intensity and partisanship of the campaign, it would seem wise for BPC to fall into line with this practice. Most pollsters are already very quick off the mark, but not all polls published on a Sunday are getting put up before Monday.

The motion was carried.

The second proposed motion sought to apply the same rules for the timing of election polls to the European elections, not previously covered. The motion was

:

“With effect from 28 days before any elections to the European Parliament, members will endeavour to publish on their web-site full details (as specified in the council’s rules of disclosure) of any poll that ascertains the voting intentions of the public in that referendum (in all or in any part of the United Kingdom ) within 18 hours of initial publication.”

John Curtice explained that it was likely that there would be more polling for the 2014 European elections than previously, and there was logic to bring the European election into line with BPC rules on other major elections. The effect in 2014 would be to introduce the 18 hour rule from 24 April.

The motion was carried.

The Meeting was held at GfK NOP on 21 March 2013

Present:

• John Curtice, President
• Nick Moon, GfK NOP, Secretary
• Peter Kellner, YouGov
• Simon Atkinson, Ipsos MORI
• Nick Howatt, TNS-BMRB
• Martin Boon, ICM
• Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation
• Keiran Pedley, ComRes
• Bill White, Lucid Talk

Apologies:

• Chris Eynon, System Three
• Jonny Heald, ORB
• James Endersby, Opinium
• Michael Simmonds, Populus

After reading the apologies received Nick Moon relayed the sad news that Anne-Marie Hill, of Marketing Means, and her fellow director Graham Dumper died of unrelated illnesses during 2012. The company continues, but is going in a new direction, and will not be polling in the near future, so has resigned from the BPC.

Minutes:

The minutes of the last meeting were agreed.

Officers’ Report:

The application for membership that was pending at the last AGM was subsequently approved and Lucid Talk have now become members. An application was received and approved from Panelbase during the year and they too are now members.

There have been three complaints since the last AGM concerning BPC rules of disclosure, all concerning the required information from published polls not being on the member’s website by the deadline set in the Rules. In two cases the information was made available immediately after the complaint, and in the other the information was already on the website by the time the complaint was received having been posted soon after the deadline.

John Curtice reminded members that the required information should not just be on the member’s website, but should also be easy to find.

One member contacted the Officers about a grey area concerning disclosure and was advised how to deal with this with the client. The matter was then resolved.

There have been complaints about polls conducted by members but concerning matters outside the BPC’s jurisdiction, such as question wording, and these have received a response outlining what the BPC does and does not set out to do.

Financial Report:

At the start of 2012 BPC had £4,259 in the bank. During the year there were outgoings of £625 (£284 for the website, £172 for Chairman’s travel expenses, £3 for AGM expenses, and the remainder for bank charges). There was income of £3,450 during the year, all from member subscriptions. The balance at the end of 2012 was £7,090.

Sub-Committee on Disclosure:

At the last AGM it was agreed that Patrick Sturgis would be invited to replace David Butler, and John Rentoul to replace Peter Riddell, as members of the sub-committee. Nick Moon has written to them and both have agreed. John Curtice has written to both David and Peter thanking them for their service.

Motion on 2013 membership fees:

As had been signalled at the previous AGM, the strength of the BPC’s finances led to a motion being proposed by Nick Moon and seconded by Simon Atkinson that membership fees should be reduced to a nominal £25 for 2013 before reverting to normal levels for 2014. The motion was carried unanimously.

Election of Officers:

John Curtice was re-elected unopposed as President

Nick Moon was re-elected unopposed as Secretary

Simon Atkinson was elected unopposed as member of the Management Committee.

Any Other Business:

Two pieces of communication have been received concerning members’ practices of prompting or not prompting for UKIP at voting intention questions. It was agreed that this was entirely for members to decide, but that it should be clear in any publication of polls whether UKIP had been prompted or not. It was further agreed that members would advise the Secretary of their current practice, and a statement would then be added to the BPC website giving the norm, while making it clear that members are free to use alternative approaches.

John Curtice announced he had got an ESRC grant to fund a website to collate data from polls on Scottish devolution and requested members to give him poll info in advance of publication, under embargo, to assist with this.

It was agreed John Curtice would write to Lord Ashcroft inviting him to join.