The polls told the story of the election campaign, including the prospect of a Labour landslide and the rise of Reform UK as a serious electoral force.
As the table below shows, the long-term tendency for the final polls to over-state Labour and under-state Conservative support remains in play.
For the each of the remaining parties, the average error across the polling organisations are within 2 points.
| Con | Lab | LD | Green | Reform | Other | Field | Sample | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Savanta | 20 | 39 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 9 | Online | 2,101 | 2–3 Jul |
| We Think | 23 | 41 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 4 | Online | 1,210 | 2–3 Jul |
| JL Partners | 23 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 17 | 3 | Online | 2,005 | 2–3 Jul |
| Survation | 20 | 38 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 6 | Telephone | 1,679 | 1–3 Jul |
| Norstat | 24 | 37 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 6 | Online | 3,134 | 1–3 Jul |
| Opinium | 21 | 41 | 11 | 7 | 17 | 3 | Online | 2,219 | 1–3 Jul |
| Ipsos | 19 | 37 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 10 | Telephone | 2,076 | 1–3 Jul |
| Deltapoll | 22 | 39 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 5 | Online | 1,737 | 29 Jun – 3 Jul |
| People Polling | 16 | 36 | 10 | 9 | 20 | 9 | Online | 1,260 | 2 July |
| Whitestone Insight | 21 | 38 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 6 | Online | 2,008 | 1–2 Jul |
| BMG | 22 | 39 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 6 | Online | 1,854 | 30 Jun – 2 Jul |
| Techne | 21 | 40 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 6 | Online | 5,503 | 28 Jun – 2 Jul |
| Redfield & Wilton | 22 | 41 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 5 | Online | 20,000 | 28 Jun – 2 Jul |
| YouGov | 22 | 39 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 6 | Online | 47,751 | 19 Jun – 2 Jul |
| Verian | 21 | 36 | 13 | 7 | 16 | 7 | Online | 2,135 | 28 Jun – 1 Jul |
| More in Common | 24 | 39 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 6 | Online | 13,556 | 24 Jun-1 Jul |
| Focaldata | 23 | 40 | 12 | 5 | 16 | 4 | Online | 36,726 | 10 Jun – 1 Jul |
| Stonehaven | 24 | 39 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 6 | Online | 5,000 | 28-30 Jun |
| Average | 21.6 | 38.7 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 16.3 | 5.9 | |||
| Result | 24.4 | 34.7 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 14.7 | 6.8 | |||
| Difference | -2.8 | 4.0 | -1.3 | -0.4 | 1.6 | -0.9 |
MRP overview
This election saw the publication of a series of seat projections based on MRP analysis techniques. Here we set out the final projections released by BPC members, covering all those using survey data with fieldwork running into the last five days of the campaign.
| Con | Lab | LD | SNP | Plaid | Reform | Green | Field | Sample | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 102 | 431 | 72 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 19 Jun- 2 Jul | 42,758 |
| More in Common | 126 | 430 | 52 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 24 Jun – 2 Jul | 13,556 |
| JL Partners | 111 | 442 | 58 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 21 Jun – 2 Jul | 16,334 |
| Survation | 68 | 470 | 59 | 14 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 15 Jun – 3 Jul | 34,558 |
| Focaldata | 108 | 444 | 57 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 Jun – 1 Jul | 36,726 |
| Stonehaven | 115 | 420 | 67 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 28 May – 30 Jun | 14,400 |
| Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now | 78 | 453 | 67 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 14 Jun – 3 Jul | 19,393 |
| Average | 101 | 441 | 62 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 2 | ||
| Result | 121 | 412 | 72 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 4 | ||
| Difference | -20 | 29 | -10 | 8 | -1 | 0 | -2 |