After being widely criticised for their performance in the 2015 and 2017 general elections, the polls have proven more accurate in the 2019 election than in any contest since 2005.
As the table shows, on average the final polls underestimated the Conservative vote by just 1.4 points and overestimated Labour’s by only 0.5 points.
These patterns are consistent with the long-term trend for the polls to over-state Labour and under-state Tory support, but the size of the errors were so small that this did not prevent the polls correctly predicting the overall outcome of the election.
For all the other parties, the average error across the pollsters was under one point. Indeed for the LibDems, Greens, and Others the average error was a remarkably small 0.1 of a point.
| CON | LAB | LD | Brexit | GREEN | OTHER | METHOD | SAMPLE SIZE | FIELDWORK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qriously | 43 | 30 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 8 | Online | 2222 | Dec 5-8 |
| ICM | 42 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 4 | Online | 2011 | Dec 6-9 |
| YouGov | 43 | 34 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 5 | Online | 105,612 | Dec 4-10 |
| Savanta ComRes | 41 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 6 | Online | 1732 | Dec 9-10 |
| BMG | 41 | 32 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Online | 1660 | Dec 6-11 |
| Ipsos MORI | 44 | 33 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 6 | Telephone | 2213 | Dec 9-11 |
| Kantar | 44 | 32 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 5 | Online | 2815 | Dec 9-11 |
| Deltapoll | 45 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | Online | 1818 | Dec 9-11 |
| Survation | 45 | 34 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | Telephone | 2395 | Dec 10-11 |
| Panelbase | 43 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 5 | Online | 3174 | Dec 10-11 |
| Opinium | 45 | 33 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 6 | Online | 3005 | Dec 10-11 |
| Average | 43.3 | 33.5 | 11.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 5.5 | |||
| Result | 44.7 | 33.0 | 11.8 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 5.6 | |||
| Difference | -1.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
There was also a Survation poll in Scotland conducted online from Dec 10-11 with 1,004 respondents.
| poll | Result | |
|---|---|---|
| SNP | 43 | 45.0 |
| Con | 28 | 25.1 |
| Lab | 20 | 18.6 |
| Lib Dem | 7 | 9.5 |
| Other | 2 | 1.7 |